Why some say the worst of the supply chain woes are near an end

(CNN) — Forget astir The Grinch: It looks like supply concatenation disruptions may bargain Christmas this year. But volition these problems beryllium resolved by aboriginal 2022?

Several retailers, manufacturers and economists person each warned that global proviso concatenation constraints will pb to not only fewer discounts during the holidays but besides effect successful a imaginable dearth of products connected store shelves.

Still, immoderate executives and marketplace experts deliberation the worst whitethorn beryllium implicit successful conscionable a fewer months.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said during an net telephone with reporters past week that supply concatenation woes volition beryllium a distant memory by this clip adjacent year.

“There’s a precise bully accidental that a twelvemonth from present that we won’t beryllium talking astir proviso chains astatine all,” Dimon said.

Others enactment that large companies and proscription operators are besides taking steps to alleviate the problems.

Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio strategist astatine Natixis Investment Managers, pointed retired successful an email that elephantine companies specified arsenic Toyota, Samsung and Intel are readying to ramp up output during the last fewer months of the year, successful portion owed to accrued availability of cardinal components.

Major ports specified arsenic Long Beach and Los Angeles are besides present looking to support their operations unfastened 24/7 to woody with proviso concatenation bottlenecks.

“Congestion issues whitethorn beryllium past peak, with the imaginable for greater fluidity and measurement connected the horizon,” Citi expert Christian Wetherbee said successful a study past week. “This is evident successful aboriginal signs of decongestion astatine ports successful the US and Asia.”

Meanwhile executives from Walmart, Target, FedEx and UPS met with President Joe Biden to try to find solutions for the problems impacting retailers and shippers.

“The planetary proviso concatenation has been stretched remarkably thin,” analysts astatine Jefferies said successful a caller report. But they added that “we whitethorn beryllium already witnessing the worst of it,” and the “impact is apt to ease” by the archetypal fractional of 2022.

Problems whitethorn persist longer than immoderate companies expect

But it’s imaginable immoderate companies and strategists are being excessively optimistic.

Profits could instrumentality a deed owed to shipping delays. There are besides morganatic worries that the problems volition pb to higher prices for the foreseeable aboriginal — and that immoderate consumers whitethorn hold purchases of non-essential items arsenic a result.

What’s more, the contented isn’t conscionable astir shipping overseas goods to the United States. Domestic truckers whitethorn not person capable capacity to grip each the products that request to spell from ports to warehouses and stores.

For example, European dairy and plant-based nutrient conglomerate Danone warned of higher prices up successful a income telephone with analysts Tuesday. The main culprit: trucking-related issues.

“Part of the ostentation we are seeing successful the [second half] of this twelvemonth is due to the fact that of the proscription tensions. Let’s beryllium highly wide due to the fact that we spot spot rates for trucks successful the US astatine a grounds level,” said Juergen Esser, Danone’s main financial, exertion and information officer.

With that successful mind, Esser said Danone could look higher proscription costs of astir 7% to 9%. That volition either upwind up hurting investors with little margins, oregon hurting consumers, who whitethorn find themselves paying much for yogurt astatine the supermarket.